Key dates to buy a home in 2024 with a ‘gamble’ that could beat the RBA and price rises in 2025

But to get the best of it, they’ll have to watch out for the key dates of 20 November, 2 December and 20 December.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held rates at 4.35% yesterday, and most economists now believe the earliest a cut will occur is their February 18 meeting.

Market experts have revealed there is now a short window for buyers to take advantage of a lesser-known homebuying tactic around negotiating the settlement date, or when the buyer takes ownership of the home — and starts paying a mortgage.

Buyers who think the RBA will cut rates on 18 February could buy on 20 November with a fairly typical 90-day settlement that would mean they collect the keys the same day they expect there to be a rate relief announcement.

Later in the year, less than a week from Christmas, signing a contract on December 20 could pair a seller motivated to get something done before the holidays with a 60-day settlement that would have them moving in the day the RBA makes its first call of 2025.

Buyers who believe the first rate cut won’t happen until the 1 April meeting could also try for a less common, but not infeasible 120 settlement.

Buying under those circumstances from 2 December would give buyers the chance of finalising their purchase after both the 18 February and 1 April RBA meetings.

While the savings on interest repayments would be limited, Ray White chief economist Nerida Conisbee said in certain areas a single rate cut could lead to $10,000 home price increases in a month, or even more for higher-priced neighbourhoods.

“That is on the cards in a number of areas, depending on the typical home price,” Ms Conisbee said.

“And if there’s a view rate cuts will continue, that will increase the odds of that.”

In the latter scenario, a series of rate cuts could potentially lead to tens of thousands of dollars in home value increases in some areas in a fairly short time, the economist added.

While Ms Conisbee wasn’t ruling out the possibility of a December rate cut entirely, she noted that for now there was still enough uncertainty around rates that competition for homes was likely below where it would be once a rate cut date firmed.

“The real saving is to get a slightly better price because people are slightly anxious today and there’s so much uncertainty about when rates will be cut,” Ms Conisbee said.

“So it’s not a bad idea to buy now, as once there is certainty around the cut that’s when things are going to change fairly significantly for housing.

“So, you could time it perfectly.”

Real Estate Buyers Agents Association of Australia president Melinda Jennison said she expected a rate cut would be more likely in April or June.

However Ms Jennison said she was already seeing some buyers making moves to try and cash in on differing markets with a view rate cuts could help change the fortunes of currently struggling cities.

One of her clients is selling an investment property in Brisbane after substantive price growth in recent years for the Queensland capital, with the plan to buy in Melbourne.

“They’re thinking they will be seeing prices growing there as there’s such a big gap between Melbourne and Sydney now,” Ms Jennison said.

While it would soon be possible for buyers to lock in long-range settlements that would cover some of those dates, Ms Jennison noted there were risks and it “can be a gamble”.

“Longer settlements is a strategy buyers can use, though that might not always suit the seller,” she said.

REIA president Leanne Pilkington is not expecting buyer demand to rise dramatically before Christmas, but that it will increase when rates are cut. Picture: News Corp Australia

“Where that is an option that can be an advantage to a buyer, especially if they are buying into a market that is likely to appreciate.

“But there is a risk that prices in that time frame could fall.”

For those who are buying a home to live in and especially with a long-term view, this should be less of a concern, she added.

She noted that Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide were likely to see a further spike in prices with a rate cut, while Sydney and Melbourne’s growth would depend on whether demand rose enough to outpace the number of homes for sale.

“I think there will be a lot of fence sitting until a cut announcement is made, then it will be interesting to see what the flow on effect will be of the demand drivers and the property values in certain areas,” she said.

Real Estate Institute of Australia president Leanne Pilkington said she wasn’t expecting the first rate cut until April 1, but warned those who waited for it could face a much more competitive market.

While Ms Pilkington said conditions varied around the country, and even from suburb to suburb in some cities, “typically we find that prices increase as rates come down”.

“So it would make sense to be taking action between now and February,” she said.

While Ms Pilkington said if a buyer found a vendor willing to negotiate on timing there was scope for them to have their cake and eat it.

“You can negotiate a longer settlement in a lot of cases,” she said.

“But even if you buy right now, by the time you start paying your mortgage it is likely you will pay only a few months before rates are cut.”

The REIA president added that it appeared buyers were not facing the same sense of urgency in the lead up to Christmas as usual, particularly in areas where price growth had been slow or falling in the past few months, hinting that scope to negotiate a longer settlement could be more feasible.

“I think it’s fair to say we are not expecting a massive rush of buyers making a decision before Christmas,” Ms Pilkington said.

This article first appeared on realestate.com.au and has been republished with permission.