The electorates where home prices have fallen ahead of Australia going to the polls
Daniel Butkovich, Property Journalist
First published 05 March 2025, 02:00 PM
While property prices rose in the majority of federal electorates in the three years since the 2022 election, there are dozens of seats where homes have become more affordable.
PropTrack data shows the majority of electorates where prices fell were located in Melbourne, which has lagged the rest of the country in terms of price growth in the past few years.
Of the 150 electorates set to be contested at the upcoming 2025 federal election, 25 recorded house price declines and 36 recorded unit price falls.
Across the country, most electorates with home price declines were held by Labor, but those with biggest price drops tended to be independent or Liberal-held seats.
These electorates were mostly pricier areas, with 18 of the 25 seats where house prices fell having median prices of more than $1 million.
Labor holds 13 seats that recorded house price declines, while six are held by Liberal and one by the Greens. Five are held by independents.
The electorates where home prices fell the most
The electorates with the biggest price drops were mostly located in Melbourne’s inner and eastern suburbs, where properties are typically more expensive than the rest of the city.
The largest fall was in the seat of Macnamara, which encompasses suburbs such as Albert Park, St Kilda and Elwood.
The median sale price for houses in the Labor-held electorate dropped from $2 million in May 2022 to $1.75 million in February this year – a fall of $250,000, or 13%.
By contrast, Australia’s median house price rose by 13% in that same period.
The median house price in Flinders, which covers the Mornington Peninsula and is currently held by Liberal, fell by $140,000 to $1.06 million – a 12% drop.
House prices in the inner-city seat of Melbourne, held by Greens leader Adam Bandt, dropped by 9%, or $145,000, while unit prices there fell 7%.
Goldstein in Melbourne’s east, held by independent Zoe Daniel, experienced a $115,000 drop.
House prices fell by 4% in the Sydney electorate of Mackellar on the northern beaches, equating to a decline of more than $100,000. Picture: Getty
In Sydney, house prices in the northern beaches electorate of Mackellar, held by independent Sophie Scamps, fell by $105,000, while fellow independent Zali Steggall’s seat of Warringah dropped by $85,000.
In the unit market, there were 36 electorates where prices fell, and the majority were in Victoria. The biggest declines were mostly in pricier Liberal or independent-held seats.
Median unit prices dropped by about $90,000 in both Liberal-held Menzies and neighbouring Kooyong, which had been held by Liberal since 1945 before independent Monique Ryan was elected in 2022.
These electorates in Melbourne’s east are among the most expensive for units in Melbourne. Kooyong encompasses suburbs such as Toorak and Hawthorn, while Menzies includes Mont Albert and Doncaster.
Unit prices dropped by 9% in Labor-held Maribyrnong, 8% in Liberal-held Flinders and 7% in Greens-held Melbourne.
In Sydney, unit values dropped by $70,000 in the Liberal seat of Bradfield on the upper north shore, $40,000 in neighbouring Bennelong, claimed by Labor at the last election, and $50,000 in Wentworth in the city’s east, held by independent Allegra Spender.
REA Group senior economist Angus Moore said price declines in more affluent elections largely reflected the downturn triggered by interest rate rises that began right before the 2022 election.
“One of the things we often see is when prices are softer, you see more of a downturn at the top of the market,” he said. “And also vice versa – when prices are rising, the top end can outperform. It’s not universally true, but it is often the case.”
Since interest rates started rising, price growth in the smaller capitals of Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide outpaced that of the larger cities.
Some of the largest price falls in the unit market since the 2022 federal election were in affluent electorates in Melbourne's east. Picture: realestate.com.au/sold
“Sydney saw prices slide through that period and that would have weighed on some of those expensive suburbs and electorates,” Mr Moore said.
The decline in prices across many Melbourne electorates largely reflected the softness of the city’s overall market during the past three years, he said.
Melbourne’s median home price is still 4.7% lower than the peak recorded in March 2022, with the city’s higher rate of home construction helping keep price growth in check.
However, Melbourne recently recorded a jump in prices after interest rates were cut, with a boost to borrowing capacities and increased competition among investors and owner-occupiers helping reignite price growth.
Could home price falls influence the election result?
While home price movements have traditionally had a strong influence on voters’ moods, given how much wealth many people have tied up in property, that relationship was changing, according to The Australia Institute senior economist Matt Grudnoff.
“When people hear house prices are going down, they don’t necessarily think that it’s a negative. It might be seen as a positive.”
“We’ve seen house prices rise so much and people are now so aware of the fact that it's locked out such a large section of the population that can no longer get into housing because it's so expensive.”
How home price movements affected people also depended on when they bought, he said, with recent buyers more likely to be dissatisfied.
“People who bought in at the top of the market are not going to be happy,” he said. “But there would also be people who bought in 2020 before prices went up. They’re not going to be as perturbed.”
The fact that the biggest falls were in wealthier electorates meant homeowners in these areas were likely to be better placed to weather price declines, he said.
The median house price in the Greens-held seat of Melbourne, which includes suburbs such as Richmond, Collingwood and Carlton, declined by $145,000 since May 2022. Picture: realestate.com.au/sold
“The group that are actually losing out on this might be smaller than people imagine,” he said. “They're likely to be older, more affluent and more able to absorb these losses.
Mr Grudnoff said people were broadly more supportive of policies to increase housing supply, even if it meant there was a chance the value of their own home decreased as a result.
“There has definitely been an attitude change,” he said “There's a lot more of a push for an increase in the supply of housing and push back of the NIMBYism idea of people trying to stop development in suburbs.”
“Are people in these affluent electorates happy to say ‘I’m prepared to see a 10% fall in property prices if it means other people can get into the market’?
“If they are in a generous mood to think the public good is more important than private gain, they might not be as upset as people think.”
This article first appeared on realestate.com.au and has been republished with permission.
